About This Project
Independent research built outside the classroom — motivated by a gap between how private credit is taught and what is actually happening structurally in the market.
This project was built by a junior finance student at a US business school (Class of 2027), with a focus on credit markets, liquidity risk, and quantitative analysis. The work is entirely independent — not affiliated with any course, professor, or institution.
Academic and professional background includes:
Private credit is one of the fastest-growing and least transparent segments of global finance. Most coverage is either sell-side marketing or academic work written years after the fact. The goal here was to build something closer to what an analyst at a credit fund or research desk would actually produce — original data synthesis, charted and documented in real time as the market evolves.
The project started as an attempt to understand the structural opacity in default rate reporting — where the same market produces readings from 0.75% to 9.2% depending on methodology. It grew into five volumes covering market structure, firm-level credit quality, ratings divergence, and most recently, the liquidity architecture that is actively breaking down in early 2026.
The research is not investment advice. It is a working demonstration of what independent analytical thinking looks like when applied systematically to a complex, data-sparse market.
Baseline heatmaps, leverage and dry powder trends, index tables. Established the analytical framework and data pipeline used in all subsequent volumes.
Manager-level analysis across Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl, and others. Introduced PIK loan tracking as a shadow default proxy — before it became mainstream coverage.
Focused audit of roll-up company structures — a specific category of sponsor-backed borrowers with elevated PIK exposure and compressed coverage ratios.
Systematic comparison of Moody's, S&P, Fitch, and KBRA ratings methodologies applied to private credit — and why they diverge by up to 12× on the same underlying market.
Spread compression, CLO formation records, credit secondaries surge, AUM by strategy, and the retail capital influx reshaping the investor base.
The structural mechanics of why private credit funds are exposed to redemption shocks — and the real-time evidence from Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone in March 2026.
A bottom-up forensic audit of the $35.9B non-traded BDC, updated through Q4 2025 using SEC 10-Q and 10-K XBRL filings. Fourteen red flags identified including a +324% surge in stressed loans, distribution coverage falling below 1.0× for the first time (0.91×), yield compression to 8.9%, and a ~$2.19/share valuation gap versus market-implied liquidation value derived from OBDC.
A running dashboard of forensic audits across the non-traded BDC and interval fund universe — the least transparent $200B+ corner of private credit. Each audit is built from SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, XBRL), cross-validated against publicly traded proxies, and scored on a structured red-flag rubric.
Completed. 14 red flags, 0.91× distribution coverage, +324% stressed loan growth, implied value ~$7.13/share vs $9.32 stated NAV. Full XBRL extraction through FY 2025 10-K.
Priority queue. World's largest non-traded BDC. Retail capital concentration risk, gate mechanism analysis, and spread compression thesis in progress.
Cliffwater Corporate Lending (~$30-32B interval fund), HPS/BlackRock Lending Partners (~$23.2B, management transition risk), and Ares Strategic Income Fund (~$22.7B) — all queued for audit.
Live alert. Moody's downgraded FSK's senior unsecured debt to junk (Ba1) in March 2026 — the first major BDC credit downgrade in the current cycle. Under active monitoring.
All analysis, charts, and data processing were built from scratch using the following tools:
RCore analysis languageggplot2Chart production (all PNGs)dplyr / tidyrData manipulationFRED APILive macro data (spreads, rates)quantmodBDC & ETF price dataR ShinyLocal live dashboardopenxlsxExcel report generationGitHub PagesHosting & deploymentThe live dashboard runs locally via R Shiny, pulling FRED data every 5 minutes and tracking BDC prices, HY/IG spreads, the yield curve, and alt manager performance in real time.
This website is independent academic and educational work. It does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is sourced from publicly available information and is presented for informational purposes only. Research volumes 2–5 are password-protected and intended for professional audiences. The author has no affiliation with any of the firms, funds, or data providers mentioned.