Independent Research — Vol. 1 — March 2026
A comprehensive analysis of the top 40 private credit managers, 20 largest BDCs, credit ratings, sector exposure, leverage metrics, default dynamics, and geographic distribution across the $3.5T private credit universe.
Key Findings
Apollo ($480B) and Blackstone ($432B) alone account for over half of total AUM among the top 10 managers, with the top 5 firms collectively managing ~$1.5T in private credit.
Consumer products sectors show a 12.8% default rate — over 6x the Preqin market estimate of 1.76% — while software/technology remains relatively contained at 1.9%.
87% of default events are "soft" — 60% interest deferrals/PIK and 27% maturity extensions — suggesting lenders are managing distress quietly rather than forcing bankruptcy.
Full-stack US mid-market leverage sits at 7.0x EBITDA — well above the 5.5x sustainable benchmark — while broadly syndicated loans at 5.8x and buyouts at 4.1x appear more conservative.
This website and all research contained herein is independent academic and educational work produced solely by the author. It is not investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security, and should not be relied upon for any investment decision. All data is sourced exclusively from publicly available publications (PDI 200, S&P Global, Moody's, Fitch, KBRA, LSTA, BIS, IMF, Federal Reserve, and company filings). This project is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or representative of any private credit manager, BDC, investment firm, or financial institution referenced herein. All analysis, models, and visualizations are original work developed for educational purposes to support a career in investment banking and private equity. Firm-level data reflects publicly available information only. Research volumes are password-protected and intended for professional audiences.
Data Snapshot
Private credit AUM in USD billions (2025)
Estimated portfolio-weighted share of originations
Share of global private credit outstanding (2025)
TTM through January 2026 (n = 89 events) — Fitch
About This Project
This project is an independent deep-dive into the private credit landscape, combining data from PDI 200, S&P Global, Moody's, Fitch, KBRA, BIS, the Federal Reserve, and the IMF. The goal is to surface actionable insight into manager concentration, BDC credit quality, sector risk, leverage dynamics, and default behavior across the direct lending ecosystem.
Built with R-based data pipelines and updated as new data becomes available. All models, tables, and visualizations are original work developed to support a career in investment banking and private equity.